Dollar Down, “Reckless” Bets Avoided Before U.S. Election By

© Reuters.

By Gina Lee – The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, giving up some gains ahead of the U.S. presidential election, which starts later in the day.

Although uncertainty over the election’s outcome saw investors turn to the safe-haven asset earlier in the session, they are avoiding big moves. This uncertainty has led investors to stock up on greenbacks in order to profit from the volatility once the result is announced, rather than betting on a specific outcome.

“We have pared back a lot of our positions … it’s a bit reckless to position ourselves for one outcome of the election … we’ve positioned ourselves to trade the post (election) volatility.” Nomura executive Stuart Oakley told Reuters.

The that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down 0.03% to 94.037 by 9:48 PM ET (1:48 AM GMT).

Democrat candidate Joe Biden has a comfortable lead over incumbent President Donald trump according to opinion polls, and a Biden victory could see big stimulus packages, with a more consistent foreign policy potentially benefitting trade-exposed currencies.

However, investors are not counting out the possibility of a Trump victory or an inconclusive result, with some states too close to call. Volatility gauges are on the rise even as spot prices remain steady, a hint of future volatility as the election results, which are not expected until the middle of the trading day on Wednesday in Asia at the earliest, start to come in.

The euro and the yen both saw one-week rises in their one-week implied volatility to above 11%, the highest since April, with the yuan’s one-week volatility climbing above 12%, hovering near a five-year peak seen on Monday.

“The risk of a period of heightened currency volatility appears to be more certain … we see a risk early results and exit polls give opposing signals on election day, boosting currency volatility during Wednesday’s Asia session,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:) currency analyst Kim Mundy in a note.

The pair inched up 0.06% to 104.77.

The pair inched down 0.08% to 0.7047, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) due to hand down a crucial monetary policy widely expected to include a record low rate cut to 0.1% and a move towards quantitative easing, including a government-bond buying program.

“NAB’s assessment is that the RBA will need to convince the market they are prepared to buy at least AUD150 billion worth of bonds to justify the yield declines already seen over the course of October. Otherwise, the market, be it bond yields or AUD, risks a ‘buy the fact’ response, having sold the rumor during October,” NAB head of foreign exchange strategy Ray Attrill told Reuters.

Across the Tasman Sea, the pair inched up 0.05% to 0.6634.

The pair inched down 0.07% to 6.6854 and the pair inched up 0.08% to 1.2923.

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